| In the new generation of intra-state war, conflict, humanitarian crisis or what has now become known as a ‘complex emergency’, the public and media have tended to assume that governments, politicians and diplomats possess as much insight, firmness of resolve and clarity of understanding as their public statements and actions suggest. In communiqués we heard of their “determination” to take action or their “warnings” to warring parties, or “united international” commitment through the United Nations, European Union or NATO. At the same time, correspondents like myself were duty bound to report in good faith such expressions of resolve, just as we reported Serb leaders like Slobodan Milosevic and Radovan Karadzic attending peace negotiations and declaring “of course we want peace” in good faith. Surely there could have been no alternative? But in reality, behind the scenes, there often was weakness, indecision, a lack of consensus, and a determination to do the minimum possible, because the consequences of doing the maximum necessary were considered politically too costly. Many asked with good reason: surely none of this could have been possible, when evidence of ruthless, savage horrors being perpetrated in the cause of ethnic purity was so stark? Yet in the international actions in the former Yugoslavia from 1991 until 1995 and now at the time of writing in Kosovo from 1998 to 1999 illustrate savagely how flawed, fallible and wrong-footed the world’s leading powers can readily become. Humanitarian palliatives were more attractive than decisive actions to end the fighting once and for all. Determined belligerents and genocidal warlords bent on a course of action frequently showed how well they understood their enemies in the UN and NATO. I can never forget a chilling five hour meeting with the Bosnian Serb military leader General Ratko Mladic overlooking the River Drina at Zvornik in June 1993. “You have to realise,” he sneered as we ate lunch, “I understand the West better than the West understands itself”. He was probably right. The Achilles’ heel of any alliance is the multi-national nature of the alliance itself. The claimed 20/20 insight of western information warfare dominance, the world’s best intelligence and signals interception capability, and the most advanced analytical skills are still thwarted by the devious skills of the warlords and clan leaders who are determined to pursue the most obscene campaigns of ethnic division and annihilation. Do the institutions of government, politics, diplomacy and military strategy learn from their errors. They should, but do they? Kosovo in 1999 seems to confirm not just the limits, but the diplomatic impotence beyond a certain ill-defined point. After Bosnia we have to wonder, and wonder in a painful, soul searching way. Could anything be worse than Bosnia, we all asked? In Kosovo during 1999 it has been, and many of the same Balkan figures have been doing their evil work again. |